Smart Baccarat

There's no problem so big, that a natural nine can't solve.




looking back.... Baccarat at the Sands.....


A little flashback, to the first Vegas property to introduce baccarat to the United States.

Oh, the power of the nine.  The story of "The Temple of Gold Hair," was news to me.



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"Classic" Big Baccarat


"Classic" Big Baccarat



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I'm back! off to the AC


Well, my pledge to take a Vegas hiatus during the summer is actually happening. While I booked trips for 31 July and also in August (for the Venetian Carnival of Cuisine), this year, I really do think I'm going to avoid the Vegas heat. (Well, at least for a few months).

Off to Atlantic City in a few days, staying at the casino that just turned 30 on 26 June 2009 (surprisingly, also my birthday).

If you still don't know which property it is, this picture will give it away :



Luckily, they have managed to update things 'just a bit' since 1979. A nice little article on Atlantic City's second casino, turning thirty. Amazing, still quite a few employees working at Caesars who have been there since the original opening.

I plan on focusing quite a bit of time this trip on finally doing a baccarat overview of all of the Atlantic City properties. I'm also going to share some of the Caesars Atlantic City history, since I find it fascinating. Maybe even get into a bit of discussion about the departed Playboy Casino, which I spoke about last year.

I also have a number of interesting observations and thoughts from my previous Vegas (April) and Atlantic City (May) trips that i'll try to summarize and share. Unfortunately, I haven't had the time (or desire) to write extensive trip reports, but most definitely have quite a few great tales.

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The strangest casino in the world... Can you guess?


It was conceived as a classy casino center boardwalk in Atlantic City. A bit too classy for American Gaming tastes. It was casino number seven in New Jersey. It was constructed on a very tiny piece of land on Florida Avenue and the boardwalk. The unique three-level casino with the minimum 500-room hotel opened on April 14, 1981.

From the Elsinore company history profile "In 1980, Playboy/Elsinore Associates began construction on a $159 million hotel and casino in Atlantic City. The Playboy Hotel and Casino offered 500 hotel rooms and suites, 52,000 square feet of gaming space, 25,000 square feet of convention and meeting facilities, and a 1,000-seat entertainment lounge, the Playboy Cabaret. Elsinore and Playboy sought to attract the international, high roller market with a design modeled on European casinos and Playboy casinos in England. Spread over three floors in small rooms the Playboy provided an intimate setting for gaming, including European favorites such as European Single O Roulette, American Double O Roulette, and Chemin de Fer, a game similar to baccarat. The Playboy Hotel and Casino in Atlantic City opened on April 14, 1981."


doorman photo used with permission of Michael Price Photography







The Casino Connection Article, Bunny on the Boardwalk provides some insight on the original design for the hotel.


"The casino ran into obstacles before it was off the drawing board. The Federal Aviation Administration blocked Playboy from building a 33-story hotel tower on its Convention Hall-adjacent plot, claiming it would impede air traffic at Bader Field.


In response, the building’s height was reduced to 22 stories. Las Vegas architect Martin Stern, Jr., who built the Las Vegas Hilton and MGM Grand, designed a green glass tower with a three-level casino and a Playboy Key Club, among other amenities."

On the right and below, are initial artistic renderings of the property.














"After the 1976 referendum allowing casinos in Atlantic City, Playboy shifted gears, since gaming was limited to Atlantic City and not all of New Jersey. In ’77, Playboy Clubs International President Victor Lownes testified at a public hearing that his company was prepared to spend $32 million on a casino project. He further urged that the “English system” be adopted—casinos would be limited to 16 hours and barred from offering players drinks at tables. Casinos would be forbidden from offering live entertainment, and credit would be tightly restricted.
Luckily, Lownes didn’t carry the day—Atlantic City’s casino laws, though stricter than those of Nevada, were decidedly more liberal than Britain’s. But his attitude foreshadowed future problems the Playboy casino would have."

The actual completed Playboy Casino tower, which was quite a bit shorter than originally anticipated.

A number of interior photos show off the classy "English style" casino that Victor Lownes conceived. But, as most know, Atlantic City up until quite recently, has always been driven by the daily (bus-crowd) visitors. Not having a casino level that opened to the boardwalk, as well as an entrance difficult to locate were not going to help this ill-conceived property. In addition, it had the smallest amount of gaming space (split into three levels) of all the Atlantic City properties.

The lovely baccarat pit, which I assume was on the third floor looks like it was an incredible sight.


Of course, this brings up the very interesting topic of Baccarat versus Chemin de Fer play in the state of New Jersey. As far as I know, Chemin de Fer is still authorized by the gaming commission (in New Jersey) as a legitimate casino game.

In my never ending quest for knowledge about Baccarat -- I happened upon the website with the Official Rules of the Games in New Jersey

I was stunned when I saw two entries for Baccarat :

Subchapter 3. Baccarat - Punto Banco
and
Subchapter 4. Baccarat - Chemin De Fer

Now, the first is really just what we would refer to as "American Baccarat" --- but, the "Chemin De Fer" version really surprised me. Now, I know there were some experiments with Chemin De Fer in Vegas (Stardust et al) in the early 70's but it never really caught on. In "shimmy" you actually have a choice, if the [player] card total is a 5 --- you do not disclose the cards, but instead (based on the cards) advise if you will be drawing a 3rd card. The bank hand (with respect to the 3rd card draw) then proceeds by the regular rules.

Per the NJ gaming commission :
19:47-4.9 Procedure for dealing of additional cards
(a) After the initial four cards have been dealt, the Dominant Player shall look at the two cards dealt to the "Player's Hand" without disclosing them to the Banker. If the Point Count of the "Player's Hand" is:
1. A zero, one, two, three or four, the Dominant Player shall request one additional card by announcing "Card";
2. A five, the Dominant Player shall exercise the option of requesting one additional card by announcing "Card" or not requesting one additional card by announcing "Stay";
3. A six or seven, the Dominant Player shall not draw an additional card and shall announce "Stay";
4. An eight or nine, the Dominant Player shall announce "Natural" and all cards in both hands shall be turned immediately face upwards with no additional cards being dealt to either hand.
So, does anyone actually recall playing Chemin De Fer in Atlantic City? It was most definitely listed as one of the games offered at the opening of the Playboy Atlantic City casino. Also, upon further examination, this does seem to be the game that James Bond was playing in the original Casino Royale book.

And, one cannot emphasize enough how amazing it was that the casino floor and public spaces looked out onto the beach and Atlantic Ocean

There has only been discussion very recently, of re-engineering some of the beach zone casinos to actually have windows that look out onto the beach. Casino design for the last 30 years has often focused on no distractions to the outside world, instead creating casino environments that are totally self contained, without clocks or windows. It was great to see Caesars and Ballys open up new Diamond Lounges with incredible views of the ocean and beach.


And, we can't have a "real casino" without a great dice pit. Though, as much of this property was, this gaming area was probably way too upscale for the New Jersey gaming market in the 1980's




"In the end, the CCC issued a license to Elsinore but denied one to Playboy. Playboy then agreed to sell its share in the casino to Elsinore, which re-named the resort the Atlantis—a poor choice, when one thinks about the original fate of the Lost Continent. By the summer of 1984, Playboy Bunnies were out, the giant bunny logo on the crest of the building replaced by a seashell, and the age of Atlantis had begun.

Almost from the start, the casino took on water. In November 1985, it filed for bankruptcy, and continued to struggle for nearly five more years. In the spring of 1989, Donald Trump bought the Atlantis for a mere $63 million. Trump closed the casino and operated the property as the hotel-only Trump Regency.
In May 1996, after a regulatory change allowed him to own four casinos, Trump reopened the property as Trump’s World Fair at Trump Plaza. But this world’s fair was no cash cow; three years later, Trump closed the casino, citing its failure to turn a profit, and demolished it, promising to build a newer, more fantastic resort in its place."


A pretty amazing story, when you consider the classiest and most unique casino to be designed and built on the boardwalk was also the first casino to go bankrupt in Atlantic City. But, also a testament, to the overall corrupt nature of the New Jersey CCC with regard to licensing requirements. The denial of Hefner's license due to a liquor license dispute (in New York City - 20 years earlier) and the controversy over the London Playboy Casino violations would be minor in comparison to the future junk bond financing and suspect financial activities (all considered legal, of course) of the Trump (and Merv Griffin - Resorts) organization over the next few years.

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Got volatility?


An interesting article published a few years ago by Andrew MacDonald & William R. Eadington is one of the few available that discusses high stakes baccarat.

They have a rather fascinating discussion of volatility, the law of large numbers, and fear of the unknown; and how this all relates to the high stakes baccarat business. They go on to explain "Extending this, there is about a 95 percent chance the player will end up within two standard deviations of the expected result (between 75 units behind and 51 units ahead), and a 99.7 percent chance he will end up within three standard deviations of the expected outcome (between 107 units behind and 83 units ahead)."

Upon first glance --- you figure, yeah, I knew Baccarat was not particularly volatile for the casinos... but, what many don't figure in their analysis is the often perverted (and excessive) table limits that need to be offered to the baccarat whales. While "normal" games will often have a maximum bet of $5,000 to $15,000 --- the "whale" table limits are what make it such a volatile business. (These maximum bets often exceed $100,000 per hand)

As they go on to say "Thus it is very rare that outcomes are beyond three standard deviations. However, if one unit is $150,000, the “unlucky” outcome for a casino with our hypothetical baccarat player at the two standard deviation (95 percent confidence) level would be a player win (or casino loss) of 51 units, or a rather painful $7.65 million (before expenses)!"

In addition, you have the problem with the limited number of decisions (or hands) played by the high end baccarat player. As we all know, more hands (or spins on a machine) equal less "sweat" for the house. But, with baccarat, a shoe (with only around 70 decisions) can take up to 3 hours in high end big baccarat play. This small number of hands coupled with the über high maximum bets is a volatility disaster.

"At a 1.2 percent house advantage, a maximum bet of $250,000 played for 1,000 hands will result in an expected win of $3 million but (within two standard deviations) will vary between a loss for the casino of $12.5 million and a casino win of $18.5 million in 95 percent of occasions."
HOLY VOLATILITY BAT-MAN!

We are going to continue this discussion and looking at why the RIO got out of the high-end baccarat business, when the propellor heads at Harrah's purchased the property from Marnell in 1999.

In an effort to blog on a more consistent basis; I'm going to be setting out an agenda for each week (every Sunday or Monday).

So, this week's agenda will include :

- continued discussion of big baccarat and volatility
- brief history of the RIO Casino, the purchase by Harrah's, and the end of high stakes baccarat at the RIO
- a look at the Palazzo Suites (at RIO) built for the high stakes baccarat royalty

and just in time for the new movie release, we will look at the new movie "21!"




but, take a trip back to the "original real deal blackjack team" --- yeah, NOT the MIT Blackjack Team --- but the "wandering Jew" and his crew in the 1970's.

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